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Prediction for CME (2023-06-09T17:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-06-09T17:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25516/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2. The source is likely the associated M2.5 flare to the east of AR 13331 (S22E48, east of AR location of S22E38) and the associated eruption seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. An opening of field lines is visible in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery, with dimming seen even more to the East of the flare (and AR) location after 2023-06-09T17:08Z and post-eruptive loops starting to form around 2023-06-09T18:00Z. Update: This CME may have been detected at STEREO A on 2023-06-13T08:00Z, but we do not believe a signature was observed at L1 by ACE or DSCOVR.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-06-13T01:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2023 Jun 12 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 3321 (S15W91, Hsx/alpha)
produced the largest event of the period, a C3.3 flare at 11/0631 UTC.
The region showed some slight area decay. Region 3323 (S10, L=105)
produced a C2.8/Sf at 11/0202 UTC as it decayed to plage. Region 3327
(S16W27, Eai/beta-gamma) produced a few low-levels C-class flares.
Slight overall decay was observed in this region over the period. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares on 12-14 Jun.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate
levels on 12-14 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV protons are expected to
remain at background levels through 14 Jun.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected an enhancement in total magnetic field
strength (Bt). Bt increased from nominal levels up to 15 nT beginning
after 10/2300 UTC. The feature would have been more significant, but the
Bz component was predominantly oriented northward, with only a brief
deflection to -10 nT observed around 11/0600 UTC. Solar wind speeds
increased from below 300s (km/s) to a still relatively slow ~450 km/s
Phi angle transitioned from negative to mostly positive after 11/0000
UTC.

.Forecast...
Enhanced conditions are anticipated over 12-13 Jun due to anticipated
recurrent, positive-polarity CH HSS influence and possible weak 08 Jun
CME influence. By 13 Jun, weak interaction from the 09 Jun CME is
possible. A gradual return to nominal conditions is expected by 14 Jun.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. 

.Forecast...
Quiet to isolated active conditions are likely on 12-13 Jun due to the
anticipated arrival of the aforementioned, positive-polarity CH HSS and
possible CME effects. Mostly quiet levels are expected by 14 Jun.

Lead Time: 73.00 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2023-06-10T00:00Z

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